In 2030, the global shipment of solid-state batteries is expected to exceed 614.1 gigawatt-hours (GWh), with a market size surpassing 250 billion yuan. The penetration rate of solid-state batteries in the overall lithium battery market is projected to be around 10%, primarily driven by the dominance of semi-solid-state batteries.
The China Battery Industry Research Institute has released the “White Paper on the Development of China’s Solid-State Battery Industry (2024),” defining batteries with electrolyte content below 10% as semi-solid-state batteries and those completely devoid of electrolyte as full solid-state batteries. As the liquid electrolyte content gradually decreases and the solid electrolyte content increases, significant improvements in battery energy density and safety performance are anticipated.
The white paper notes that since 2022, there has been significant progress in the research and industrialization of solid-state batteries, particularly with Chinese companies achieving mass production and installation of semi-solid-state batteries, marking the economic industrialization of semi-solid-state batteries in 2023. However, full solid-state batteries still face unresolved challenges such as ion conductivity, solid-solid interface issues, and cycling performance, with the expected industrialization timeframe around 2030.
Based on the assessment of solid-state battery technology and cost reduction paths, it is anticipated that the global shipment of solid-state batteries will reach 614.1 GWh by 2030, with a penetration rate of approximately 10% in the overall lithium battery market. The market size is expected to exceed 250 billion yuan, mainly driven by semi-solid-state batteries. The substantial increase in the forecast for solid-state battery shipments is primarily attributed to the remarkable progress and cost reduction achieved by Chinese companies in the research and development of semi-solid-state batteries in recent years.
From a competitive perspective, overseas companies represented by Japan and the United States have been early adopters of solid-state battery technology, with full solid-state batteries as their development goal. However, their industrialization progress has been relatively slow. Chinese companies, on the other hand, have chosen the relatively easy industrialization path of semi-solid-state batteries as transitional products, driving the industrial development of semi-solid-state batteries.